Housing Collapse and Demographics
From The New York Times:
DUBLIN — The collapse of the housing bubble in the United States is mutating into a global phenomenon, with real estate prices swooning from the Irish countryside and the Spanish coast to Baltic seaports and even parts of northern India.
This synchronized global slowdown, which has become increasingly stark in recent months, is hobbling economic growth worldwide, affecting not just homes but jobs as well.
In Ireland, Spain, Britain and elsewhere, housing markets that soared over the last decade are falling back to earth. Property analysts predict that some countries, like this one, will face an even more wrenching adjustment than that of the United States, including the possibility that the downturn could become a wholesale collapse.
To some extent, the world’s problems are a result of American contagion. As home financing and credit tightens in response to the crisis that began in the subprime mortgage market, analysts worry that other countries could suffer the mortgage defaults and foreclosures that have afflicted California, Florida and other states.
Citing the reverberations of the American housing bust and credit squeeze, the International Monetary Fund last Wednesday cut its forecast for global economic growth this year and warned that the malaise could extend into 2009.
“The problems in the U.S. are being transmitted to Europe,” said Michael Ball, professor of urban and property economics at the University of Reading in Britain, who studies housing prices. “What’s happening now is an awful lot more grief than we expected.”
You can read the entire story HERE
Yes, some banks made loans to a few people who really couldn’t afford the housing, and yes, a small percentage have been foreclosed. Is the entire downturn in the housing market caused by the sub-prime loan debacle?
In the USA, there is a HUGE demographic, the baby boomers, who have already started retiring. As they retire, many are downsizing, looking for a simpler way of life. Could it be that there is more than one factor acting here? Could housing demand be dropping? Wasn’t there a similar post World War II baby boom in Europe? How will the boomers’ retirement effect the US economy?
Kuwait has one long continuous baby boom – seems to me the housing prices here continue to go up!
Hit the Road Running
Both AdventureMan and I have a lot on our plates today, so we hit the road running a little early. I was actually up when the sun rose – 5:25 a.m. and bring you this morning’s sunrise:
I am afraid to say ‘it looks like a glorious day.’ Friday also dawned a glorious day, and ended in wreckage, lives lost and enormous property damage as a fifteen minute wind, sand, hail, thunder and lightning storm struck Kuwait. One forecaster said more is on the way – and I wonder, still? Can we still expect the possibility of another freak storm?
It’s 64°F / 18°C at 0600 with a forecast of 100°F / 38°C forecast for today.
Cynthia’s Praline Cake
My friend Cynthia, who knows I love mysteries, confessed to me that it was HER praline cake featured in JA Jance’s Joanna Brady series, and that she was the Cynthia who, in the book, brings it to the community potluck supper. And . . . she shared the recipe with me!
My friends, it is an easy recipe if you have the ingredients on hand (oats, brown sugar, butter) but I warn you – no substitutions! Yes, it is full of sugars and fats – why do you think it tastes so good??
Cynthia’s Praline Cake
(This is another one you can make in two 8″ round pans, and freeze one for later.)
1 cup quick-cooking oats
1 cup cold water
1 cup white sugar
1 1/4 cups brown sugar
1 cup oil
2 eggs
1 1/2 cups flour
1 teaspoon baking soda
1 teaspoon cinnamon
1/4 teaspoon salt
Icing
1 stick butter (1/2 cup)
2 Tablespoons milk
1 cup packed light brown sugar
1 1/4 cut chopped pecans
In a small bowl combine the oats and water, set aside. In another small bowl, combine and mix the dry ingredients – the flour, soda, cinnamon and salt.
In a larger mixing bowl, cream together the sugars, oil and eggs. Beat, add the oat mixture alternately with the mixed dry ingredients. Mix well.
Pour into greased and floured 9 x 13 inch baking pan. Bake at 350 degrees for 35 – 40 minutes.
For the icing: Just before the cake is done, combine butter, milk, and brown sugar in a saucepan, bring it to a boil and boil for one minute. Add the pecans and mix. Spread over cake.
For Jewaira, who always asks for pictures, this is what the finished cake looks like:
Running Red Lights
I was out on seventh circle this morning, that annoying stretch where there sets of stoplights, one after another. Oone of the annoyances is the guys who are behind you honking the hell out of their horn because you STOPPED for the red lights, while others whiz right through. I am praying Kuwait has hidden cameras at all these lights and all those red-light-runners will have huge fines to pay when they go to register their cars.
Then I get to this red light:
I am only taking this photo because most of the lights along seventh ring were missing at least one light. This one – the set of lights on the right actually has a very dim light behind the red, you can see it a little if you are really looking. When the light changes, there is one green light – on the bottom of the other set of lights. I will admit this was the worst set of lights, but every single stoplight had missing traffic lights.
My friends, this is just not acceptable. There is so much labor around doing all kinds of stuff, but traffic lights – putting in fresh bulbs just isn’t that hard. There should be someone every single day of the year making sure traffic lights are ALL in working order. To allow it to go a day or two is truly criminal negligence, and some of these lights go for WEEKS.
More Severe Weather Coming?
In todays Kuwait Times, Kuwaiti meteorologist, Dr. Saleh Al-Ojairi is quoted as saying that “the storm occurred because of the formation of a severe depression locally known as ‘Al Sarrayat.'” The Times goes on to say the “He also predicted severe weather conditions to reoccur in the near future.”
What does ‘Al Sarrayat’ mean?
Election Excitement
Coming home from church on Friday, we saw a Ministry of Interior Land Rover at a stoplight, with its lights revolving. That got our attention immediately, because if the lights are flashing, it usually means someone is in a hurry, but this guy was waiting patiently for the light to turn. As we noticed him waiting patiently, we also noticed he had his window open, and . . . he was wearing a balaclava, a face mask worn while skiing to keep your face warm but you can still see and breathe. The temperature was at least in the 80’s, and a ski mask to keep your face warm in Kuwait . . . well, that doesn’t make sense. Maybe if he was using his air conditioning, and it was too strong, and hurt his sinuses, well maybe . . .
Saturday we read this article from the Arab Times, which explained a little about what we were seeing:
Two Kuwaitis, officers hurt in Sabahiya clash; ‘Awazem’ battle securitymen
KUWAIT CITY : Two Kuwaitis and a number of securitymen were injured in a violent clash during which the Awazem tribesmen used sticks and stones against security forces, who were trying to stop them holding a primary in Sabahiya. The fighting took place Friday when about 5,000 securitymen from the Special Forces and Riot Police, supported by vehicles and helicopters, surrounded the Diwaniya of former MP and candidate in the upcoming elections from the fifth constituency, Ghanim Al Mei. The securitymen used tear-gas and rubber bullets to disperse the rioters. No arrests were reported. A similar incident some time back had prompted the then Minister of Interior to recall his forces from the Diwaniya of a former MP.
Sources said a large number of securitymen and CID officers were deployed as backup at a nearby cemetery. Security forces and election candidates are exchanging charges, each pinning the blame for the incident on the other. Former MP and candidate from the fifth constituency Abdullah Rai Al-Fahma in a press statement said, “Tribes are an integral part of the Kuwaiti society. They have the right to consult and choose their representatives to the National Assembly like the political blocs and other political organizations.” The government must stop this repressive measure before things take a serious turn, Al-Fahma added. Some observers and a number of candidates have opined the government is exacerbating the issue intentionally to prolong the election indefinitely by issuing ‘emergency decrees.’
My own country is also in an election year this year, and we have our own very strange ways of doing things. We have things like caucuses, and primary elections and delegates, and conventions to choose our candidates.
It is fascinating for me to watch what is going on in Kuwait and to try to figure out what is going on. Even reading reports in the newspapers, even gleaning from the blogs, it is hard for me to figure out why certain things are significant.
So I am guessing here that the tribes/families are acting as political parties and attempting to narrow the field by voting in secret diwaniyyas (diwaniyyas are spaces built in houses for either males or females to gather for visiting back and forth, but not mixed groups, or only very very rarely. They function like the benches on the town square, where people – mostly men – come and discuss issues, often reaching consensus on how an issue should be approached) for candidates that they can agree are electable. Once all the tribe/families have a chance to vote, they will select a slate of candidates to run in that district. This is my guess, based on what I read and see.
But in the districts, there are more than one family/tribe . . . so how do you agree to vote outside your tribal / familial boundaries? It is hard for me to understand how one tribe can gather enough influence to win. I am guessing that these diwaniyya “primaries” are being so actively discouraged because if one family wins too much, then they distribute favors among their own members, and others go without help? Is this a wasta issue? How do the tribes form alliances to win elections?
I would love to tell you that modern western countries don’t have these problems. It would be a lie. We have our own names for “wasta” and one is a term I can never imagine being used in Kuwait, Pork Barrel Legislation which means it doesn’t make sense from a big-picture point of view, it is legislation passed to benefit a few, and to insure that the elected guy can get elected again.
Will banning by-elections make a difference in the outcome of the election? What is the goal of the diwaniyya elections? How do the females get to vote if it is only men attending? What is the government’s goal in banning the by-elections?
Sunrise April 13, 2008
At 0700 it is 73°F / 23°C, and it is very hazy (look how the haze magnifies the size of the sun) but the sea has some color, a light hazy green. The haze looks like it may burn off a little later and the high is expected to be around 95°F/35°C.
I really did take this photo.
And now I will tell you, I tried to take photos of the lightning the other night. Most of it was just cloud-to-cloud and all I got were black photos with slightly lighter spots in them. AdventureMan instructed me that if I wanted lightning shots, I needed to set up a tripod and a timed exposure, but I think there is too much ambient light where I live to make that effective. So I found a great dramatic shot online and used it to illustrate. I sure didn’t mean to deceive you. I sure wish I had taken that shot!
Lightning
Yesterday had a little color, a little less haze, and I could see the hazy green of the Gulf. Late in the day, AdventureMan asked “are those car lights flashing?” and we looked outside and could see lightning, but it appeared to be only over the Gulf, and never close enough for us to hear any thunder from it. Hours later, the same storm was still going on. The wind rose, and whistled through the cracks in our “luxury” building; lightning continued to flash – but we never saw a drop of rain.
This morning, there is some color, but a lot of haze. It is 77°F / 25°C at 0800. I don’t have asthma, but I feel a little like I am breathing under water today.
Parking Problem
From the Arab Times:
Kuwaiti brothers critically hurt in gang attack over parking row
KUWAIT CITY : Eight persons broke into a Kuwaiti family’s house in Salmiya and attacked three brothers with knives, machetes, sticks and similar weapons just because the brothers did not allow a female student of a nearby institute to park her car opposite their house.
The brothers were critically wounded and had to be admitted to the Intensive Care Unit of Mubarak Al-Kabeer Hospital.
Securitymen, who rushed to the scene after receiving a call from their mother, managed to arrest one of the attackers but the rest of them bolted from the scene.
A case was registered.
By Mizyed Al-Saeedi
Special to the Arab Times
People here can get pretty riled up over parking. One time, my husband and I were attending a social event, and we parked on – well, it looked like a public street to us, and public streets, unless they have numbered, private parking, you are allowed to park on public streets because you are the public. That’s what we thought anyway.
When we came out, we had cars literally blocking us, forward and rear, from getting out. My husband approached the owner of the house in front of whom we were parked, who was around the corner in his diwaniyya (on the public sidewalk) and when my husband said he was sorry, the man said he could put his “assif” (sorry) in his pocket!
Not one to give up easily, AdventureMan schmoozed for a while. The man said he would have his driver take me home, and AM asked him if he would put HIS wife in a car with a strange driver. That got an appreciative grin. Long story short, finally he allowed us to leave. He had some legitimate gripes – the facility where we had attended the performance has people who block his parking access to his house all the time.
My husband visited him again the next day with a parcel of dates to express his appreciation for the guy having let us go, and visited the facility and helped arrange to insure that people would not park in front of this guy’s house again. He and the man became – well, not friends, but cordial acquaintances.
I’ve always been glad AM handled it in a gentlemanly fashion. Imagine, breaking in and stabbing people over a parking spot!
More Airline Fees
I had total sticker shock when I bought my ticket to go home this summer – I paid for an economy class ticket what I used to pay for a business class ticket. Ulp. More money, less legroom, more headaches . . .
The Washington Post ways we have more unpleasant surprises in store:
Airline passengers, already enduring persistent flight delays and other customer service headaches, are confronting another aggravation: mounting fees for everything from checking a second bag to sending a child alone on a trip.
Carriers are turning to the fees and charges — some of which are built into the cost of a ticket — to help them cope with rising fuel costs, which account for increasing portions of their budgets.
Just in time for the summer travel season, airlines have tacked on a $25 fee to check a second bag, and yet another carrier announced last week that it was adding a fee for curbside baggage check-in. Others have steadily brought back pesky overnight-stay requirements to help them better separate business fliers from penny-pinching leisure travelers. Most have tried to slip fuel surcharges into the cost of tickets — fees that have climbed past $150 each way on some international flights.
Passengers won’t be feeling the squeeze just in their purses. Most major carriers have also announced reductions in flights by the fall to help improve efficiency, a move that will cram more passengers onto already crowded jets.
You can read the entire article HERE.
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