America in 2050 — Part 1
This is the first of a three-part series for AOL News adapted from Joel Kotkin’s new book, “The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050.” Part 2 in the series will look at America’s increasingly multiracial population in 2050.
This is an opinion piece from AOL NEWS OP/ED If you read this article carefully, you will see that the population trends he cites as promising for the USA are equally applicable to countries in the Middle East with stable economies and forward leaning plans:
Opinion: What America Will Look Like in 2050
Joel Kotkin
Special to AOL News
(March 15) — To many observers, America’s place in the world is almost certain to erode in the decades ahead. Yet if we look beyond the short-term hardship, there are many reasons to believe that America will remain ascendant well into the middle decades of this century.
And one important reason is people.
From 2000 to 2050, the U.S. will add another 100 million to its population, based on census and other projections, putting the country on a growth track far faster than most other major nations in the world. And with that growth — driven by a combination of higher fertility rates and immigration — will come a host of relative economic and social benefits.
More fertile
Of course the percentage of childless women is rising here as elsewhere, but compared to other advanced countries, America still boasts the highest fertility rate: 50 percent higher than Russia, Germany or Japan, and well above that of China, Italy, Singapore, Korea and virtually all of eastern Europe.
As a result, while the U.S. population is growing, Europe and Japan are seeing their populations stagnate — and are seemingly destined to eventually decline. Russia’s population could be less than a third of the U.S. by 2050, driven down by low birth and high mortality rates. Even Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has spoken of “the serious threat of turning into a decaying nation.”
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Database.
In East Asia, fertility is particularly low in highly crowded cities such as Tokyo, Shanghai, Tianjin, Beijing and Seoul. And China’s one-child policy — and a growing surplus of males over females — has set the stage for a rapidly aging population by mid-century. South Korea, meanwhile, has experienced arguably the fastest drop in fertility in world history, which perhaps explains its extraordinary, if scandal-plagued, interest in human cloning.
Even more remarkably, America will expand its population in the midst of a global demographic slowdown. Global population growth rates of 2 percent in the 1960s have dropped to less than half that rate today, and this downward trend is likely to continue — falling to less than 0.8 percent by 2025 — largely due to an unanticipated drop in birthrates in developing countries such as Mexico and Iran. These declines are in part the result of increased urbanization, the education of women and higher property prices. The world’s population, according to some estimates, could peak as early as 2050 and begin to fall by the end of the century.
Younger and More Vibrant
Population growth has very different effects on wealthy and poor nations. In the developing world, a slowdown of population growth can offer at least short-term economic and environmental benefits. But in advanced countries, a rapidly aging or decreasing population does not bode well for societal or economic health, whereas a growing one offers the hope of expanding markets, new workers and entrepreneurial innovation.
In fact, throughout history, low fertility and socioeconomic decline have been inextricably linked, creating a vicious cycle that affected such once-vibrant civilizations as ancient Rome and 17th-century Venice and that now affects contemporary Europe , Russia and Japan.
Within the next four decades, most of the developed countries in both Europe and East Asia will become veritable old-age homes: a third or more of their populations will be older than 65, compared with only a fifth in the U.S. By 2050, roughly 30 percent of China’s population will be older than 60, according to the United Nations. The U.S. will have to cope with an aging population and lower population growth, in relative terms, but it will maintain a youthful, dynamic demographic.
More Hopeful About the Future
The reasons behind these diverging trends is complex. In some countries, a sense of diminished prospects, combined with a chronic lack of space, appear to be the root causes for plunging birthrates. As Italians, Germans, Japanese, Koreans and Russians have fewer offspring — one recent survey found that only half of Italian women 16 to 24 said they wanted to have children — they will have less concern for future generations.
In contrast, in the United States roughly three-quarters of young people report they plan to have offspring. Such individual decisions suggest that America, for all its problems, is diverging from its prime competitors, placing its faith in a future that can accommodate 100 million more people.
As author Michael Chabon recently wrote, “In having children, in engendering them, in loving them, in teaching them to love and care about the world,” parents are “betting” that life can be better for them and their progeny
Joel Kotkin is a distinguished presidential fellow at Chapman University in Orange, Calif., and an adjunct fellow with the Legatum Institute in London.
To submit an op-ed to AOL News, write to opinion@aolnews.com.
March 16, 2010
Posted by intlxpatr |
Civility, Community, Family Issues, Financial Issues, Interconnected, Social Issues, Values, Work Related Issues |
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Don’t you think the name of the bank might be relevant to this story? Don’t you think it might alert other bank customers to check their statements carefully? Why on earth would the name of the bank be concealed if it is stealing from its customers?
Bank accused of embezzling customer funds
Web posted at: 3/15/2010 5:58:51
Source ::: THE PENINSULA DOHA:
In a rare and unprecedented incident, a local bank faces accusations of embezzling customer funds and committing financial irregularities in managing the accounts of some of its customers. Noting that there were some deductions in their accounts without being notified and without such deductions being valid in the first place, the affected customers reported the violations to the bank which could not convince them of the nature of the deductions or the transactions shown in their accounts. The case was reported to the judicial authorities and was ordered to be investigated via the public prosecution. After investigations the public prosecution decided to file charges against the bank. The case was referred to the court of first instance.
March 15, 2010
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Communication, Community, Crime, Customer Service, Doha, Financial Issues, Interconnected, Values |
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While most of my time has been spent joyfully grandmama-ing, I was feeling increasing anxiety about one thing. I am flying back to Doha to pack, and then I am flying back to Pensacola to close on the house, and wait for AdventureMan to join me, and then all our furniture and household goods that have been in storage a lifetime – twelve years – will arrive.
Oh oh. Where do we sleep until our bed arrives? We COULD invade our dear son and his sweet wife once again, but don’t you think enough is enough? Would you want your parents and in-laws living with you, week after week, with all our well-intentioned advice, and stories about our son when he was young?
No? LLOOLLL, me neither!
So yesterday, I took an afternoon to myself.
First, I had learned that the Pensacola Quilter’s Guild was having their bienniel (once every TWO years) show this weekend, Friday and Saturday. There is little that can take this adoring grandmama away from her most adorable brand-new grandson, but I will admit it – a quilt show – that is beyond temptation. I had to go, even just for an hour. I went, joined the guild, hurried through the exhibit, which was GLORIOUS! and then I went furniture shopping.
Furniture shopping is not what it used to be. I have some lovely furniture in storage, but not a huge amount of it. Some of it we sent off with Law and Order Man when he went off to law school and needed some basics. Some of it is just outdated – like televisions from the 90’s! I figured I would just look for the basics – bed, mattress and table and chair. We will have a place to sit when we are not sleeping, and we can buy the TV’s together, later, with our son’s help. We need the help of the high-tech-savvy to get us up to speed on what we will be needing, phones, TV’s, cable connections, phone plans, internet connections, oh, it is as bad as buying a new car!
When we were still in the military, we found a dining room table and chairs, gorgeous, at an auction, for $169. We found marble topped antique oak nightstands, gorgeous, at the flea market in Metz, and paid $60 for the pair. We found a gorgeous buffet/credenza in a used furniture shop in Leavenworth, KS for $50 + $10 for delivery, all these are furniture pieces we still treasure. I am telling you this so you will understand what sticker shock I get when I go to look at new furniture.
I am quick and clear about what I want and need, but the prices require me to summon all the courage I can summon when I go to write the checks. I am good at saving. Letting that money go is so HARD. It took me the entire afternoon to find pieces I knew would work for us.
Here is where you will sleep, the guest room bed, when you come to stay with us:

It was on sale. I love it because, with the inlay, it sort of reminds me of the Middle East, of Damascus:

I also bought mattresses. It was difficult, too, because I don’t like these pillow tops. We like a good, firm bed, and I like to sleep cool, I can’t get to sleep if I am too warm, and these pillow tops are too warm. It took me a long time to find a good, firm mattress set for the bed.
Then I went looking for a table and chairs for the family room/ casual dining area. I knew what I wanted. My long-time Chinese friend told me the best table for families is the round table, no one sits at the head, everyone is equal. My sister Big Diamond (Little Diamond’s and Sporty Diamond’s Mom) has a HUGE, gorgeous round table, and I have seen how people love to gather there. So I knew I wanted a round table that would be inviting and comfortable, but not so grand as my sister’s. I have been looking online, checking out a lot of models. When I found one here in Pensacola, at a reasonable price, I was hooked. It is light teak – light in color, heavy in weight. OOps. Then she reminded me I would need chairs. Aaarrgh.
There weren’t any other customers in the shop at the time, so we took our time. As I learned from you, my Middle Eastern friends, we dickered a little, comfortably and amiably – and she gave me a discount, and free delivery.


The chairs are amazing. You would not believe wood could feel so comfortable. The table and chairs together remind me so much of all our times camping and in lodges in Africa, in Zanzibar, in Zambia, in Botswana, where the furniture is both comfortable and well made. But I almost choked, writing the check. Some things are just worth buying new; sturdy, comfortable furniture is one of them.
Here is the guest bathroom:

It has a spa tub and a walk in shower. π
Last but not least, I found some farewell gifts for friends I have had in Doha for a long long time, and a bolt of muslin for a friend who knows I am coming back with suitcases almost empty. π It was a long day, and a fruitful day, and I am resting easier knowing all these little details are coming together.
Today, however, my son and his wife are taking me to the kinds of places I LOVE buying furniture! The Waterfront Mission Store and Loaves and Fishes! Wooo HOOOOO!
February 28, 2010
Posted by intlxpatr |
Adventure, Cross Cultural, Cultural, Doha, ExPat Life, Family Issues, Financial Issues, Kuwait, Living Conditions, Local Lore, Relationships, Shopping, Values, Zambia, Zanzibar |
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I love public transportation, when it is good. When it is modern and clean and orderly, it is good for citizens, good for the community, good for the country and good for the environment. Woo HOOO on Qatar, and on an Emir who says (I paraphrase) to let nothing stand in its way, to remove all obstacles. Wooo HOOOOO!
Work starts on railway projects
Web posted at: 2/25/2010 6:51:1
Source ::: THE PENINSULA/ By MOHAMED SAEED
DOHA: Preliminary work on the ambitious multi-billion dollar metro and ground rail projects has begun and once the networks are ready trains could be moving at speeds of 80 to 350km per hour.
The projects are to be completed in phases between 2010 and 2016 and will take into consideration Qatarβs bid to host the football World Cup in 2022.
The three mega railway projects (the metro network within Greater Doha, the over-ground railways covering entire Qatar and eventually linking it to the rest of the GCC region and cargo trains) are expected to cost an astronomical QR133.5bn.
This was disclosed by the Qatar News Agency yesterday. It said the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, H E Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Jabor Al Thani, briefed the Heir Apparent, H H Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, on the railway and various Ashghal projects at the Emiri Diwan yesterday.
Senior Qatari Diar officials handling the railway ventures and Ashghal (Public Works Authority) functionaries made the presentations.
According to QNA, the Premier briefed the Emir, H H Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, on these projects on February 2 and was asked to refer them for review to the Heir Apparent.
The Emir also asked the PM to remove any obstacles facing these ventures and added that the projects be forwarded to the Advisory Council and the Central Municipal Council (CMC) as well for revision.
Qatari Diar officials told the Heir Apparent that the metro rail project will cover a total distance of 354km and the trains will run at speeds of 80 to 160km per hour.
The ground rail network will, on the other hand, cover a total distance of 345km and traverse the entire country and passenger electric trains will be running at between 220 and 350km per hour.
This network will be linked to the GCC railways by 2017. Cargo trains covering major economic centres in Qatar will be running at 120km per hour.
Ashghal officials briefed the Heir Apparent on current and future infrastructure projects.
They put the total cost of the various road, sewage and groundwater collection projects at a whopping QR70bn and said the ventures are to be ready in five to eight years.
The possibility of hiring international consultants to handle key public projects was also discussed so that smooth traffic flow on arterial roads was ensured during the execution of these ventures.
A pipeline is to be installed that would collect rain water from the north and other parts of the country and bring it to a reservoir in the south.
And the capacities of the three major sewage water treatment plants are to be increased, said Ashghal officials.
February 26, 2010
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Community, Doha, ExPat Life, Interconnected, Living Conditions, Social Issues, Values, Work Related Issues |
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Every now and then I make a new friend. I can see in their eyes – life! love! willingness to engage and take risks! people who don’t necessarily see things the way the majority does.
One of these friends, my Kuwaiti friend, is a treasure. She has the most amazing mind, and sends me the most amazing things.
You might look at me and think I am too old for Pink Floyd, but you would be wrong. Pink Floyd makes my blood run faster. They did when I was younger, they did when my own son discovered Pink Floyd, and then, watching this video my friend sent – WOW. There goes the adrenelin!
OK, YouTube won’t let me insert it in this post. Go to the original post, play the video. . . very creative, very moving:
http://www.blurredvisionmusic.com/
Don’t you love young people? They love justice, and they hate injustice. They hate unnecessary constrictions. They hate people telling them how to think. All that energy, all that passion, all that vision!
Most of my friends – like AdventureMan, like my Kuwaiti friend – are still 25 on the inside. π
Most of my friends will get this video – and love it! π
February 9, 2010
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Adventure, Aging, Communication, Community, Cross Cultural, ExPat Life, Interconnected, Iran, Kuwait, Law and Order, Leadership, Living Conditions, Political Issues, Social Issues, Values |
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Thank you, Little Diamond, who sent this article from The Economist as an update to blog entry on cross dressing based on a tiny article in the Gulf Times
CROSS-DRESSING is on the rise among young Qataris. The local press says that more tradition-minded locals are upset by the growing number of young women affecting a masculine style of dress, baggy trousers, short hair and deep voices. These women, who call themselves boyat, which translates as both tomboy and transsexual (and is derived from the English word boy), are being seen in schools and on university campuses where some are said to harass their straiter-laced sisters.
In an episode of a talk show on Qatari television, called Lakom al Karar (The Decision is Yours), a leading academic said that the βmanly womenβ phenomenon was part of a βforeign trendβ brought into Qatar and the Gulf by globalisation. Foreign teachers, the internet and satellite television have been blamed. So have foreign housemaids, for badly influencing children in their care.
The studio audience was divided over how to respond. Some called for the death penalty for cross-dressers, while others favoured medical treatment. A rehabilitation centre for Qatari boyat has been set up, but a local report says that as many as 70% of them refuse to give up their βabnormal behaviourβ.
It is not just Qataris who are rattled. A year ago the ministry of social affairs in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) launched a campaign against βmasculine womenβ. The project, entitled βExcuse me, Iβm a girlβ, involved workshops, lectures and television programmes, stressing the virtues of femininity and raising awareness of the presumed dangers of women looking like men. An emiratesβ foundation is helping to fund a research project on βgender identity disorder among Emirati youthβ.
One official describes the βdeviant behaviourβ of the boyat as a βmenaceβ to society. But others sound less fazed. An American university lecturer in the region says the short hair and gym shoes worn by these young women would look perfectly normal on an American campus. That is just what unnerves the traditionalists.
Why do you think these girls dress and act like men? Why would a girl do that?
I think girls do that – in any country – for a reason. If privileges and freedoms are heavily weighted in favor of males, perhaps there is no great mystery as to why some females would prefer to be males. It makes sense to me. Girls aren’t stupid. They can see who is getting all the goodies. My guess it is less a gender issue than a values issue.
On the other hand, when – and if – things are more equal, there is less motivation to be other than what we were created to be.
I had some young local friends who told me that they were taking Tai Kwan Do, but quit when a neighbor told their mother that it might threaten their virginity. It broke my heart. The martial arts give grace and confidence to young women. There are a lot of ways a hymen can be broken; I have never heard of it happening while training in Tai Kwan Do. These young, vibrant girls have fewer and fewer activities that they are encouraged to do, and end up staying home or strolling endlessly at the local malls. Aaarrgh!
Dads – teach your daughters to hunt! Teach them to fish! Teach them to swim, to throw a softball, to kick a football. Take them camping in the desert, and let them run freely. Teach them chess, and how to win. Give them the gift of physical and intellectual activity, give them the understanding that sports, employment and power are equally accessible for all sexes, and you won’t be having problems with girls who yearn for the freedoms and privileges of being male.
January 30, 2010
Posted by intlxpatr |
Character, Cross Cultural, Doha, Education, ExPat Life, Family Issues, Generational, Living Conditions, Qatar, Social Issues, Values, Women's Issues |
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Man cleared of abusing expat woman
By Nour Abuzant
From The Gulf Times Court RoundUp
A Doha court acquitted a man, for lack of evidence, of the charge of abusing an American woman on July 15, 2008.
According to the chargesheet, the 36-year-old accused entered the womanβs bedroom at night and βfondledβ her while she was sleeping next to her husband.
The woman, 34, told interrogators that the accused local was a family friend and he had unsuccessfully tried to start a relationship with her.
The judges were told that the husband confronted the intruder, βwho injured himself while fleeing the scene.β
The Nepali security guard at the compound where the alleged incident took place said that he saw a man trying to enter the compound and he tried to prevent him from entering the building.
However, the guard failed to identify the man at a police parade stating βit was too dark to recognise anybody.β
The defendantβs lawyer said his client had tried to call the woman on July 14 as he was a close friend of the family.
Explaining the βnon guiltyβ verdict, the court of first instance said neither the American couple nor the security guard could recognise, beyond any reasonable doubt, the intruder. βAlso no fingerprints were taken from the scene.β
The court said that the circumstantial evidence was insufficient to convict the accused.
January 19, 2010
Posted by intlxpatr |
Bureaucracy, Cultural, Doha, Law and Order, Living Conditions, News, NonFiction, Qatar, Safety, Values, Women's Issues |
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Islamic Solidarity Games cancelled over Gulf dispute
From BBC News
The first Islamic Solidarity Games were held in Jeddah in 2005
The Islamic Solidarity Games, due to be held in Iran in April, have been called off because of a dispute with Arab countries over what to call the Gulf.
The games federation in Saudi Arabia said the Iranian organisers had failed to address its concerns, particularly about the planned logo and medals.
These bear the words “Persian Gulf”, but Arab countries, who call it the Arabian Gulf, reject the term.
The games had been postponed in October in the hope of striking a deal.
The Islamic Solidarity Sports Federation (ISSF) in Riyadh said, after an emergency board meeting, Iran’s local organising committee “unilaterally took some decisions without asking the federation by writing some slogans on the medals and pamphlets of the games”.
Iran “did not abide by the rules of the Islamic Solidarity Sports Federation” and “did not follow the decisions taken by the general assembly of the federation at a previous meeting in Riyadh”, it said in a statement.
But Iran’s committee for the games disputed the decision.
“In spite of convincing arguments made to the ISSF executive committee, regrettably and without presenting any logical reasons, the ISSF committee decided not to hold the games with Iran as the host,” it said.
The games – which are meant to strengthen ties among Islamic countries – were first held in the Saudi city of Jeddah in 2005.
Iran has campaigned to ensure the body of water between Iran and the Arabian peninsula is known as the Persian, not the Arabian, Gulf.
January 19, 2010
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Community, Cross Cultural, Cultural, Geography / Maps, Iran, Middle East, News, Technical Issue, Values, Words |
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These articles are in today’s Gulf Times, under Court Roundup.
Jail term, fine for death crash
A local motorist has been sentenced to three-monthβs imprisonment for reckless driving that led to the death of a 56-year-Pakistani pedestrian.
The Doha court of first instance imposed on the 26-year-old motorist a fine of QR20,000.
The fatal accident took place in the Old Airport area on September 27, 2008. According to the traffic report, βthe accident occurred because the motorist was speeding.β
A traffic official told the court that the motorist was driving at 80kmph on a busy street.
Family members of the deceased can claim blood money in a civil court.
Man sentenced for stealing
A Sri Lankan driver has been sentenced to a year-imprisonment for stealing items including two gas cylinders and a vacuum cleaner from the labour camp of a private company. Four of the co-accused were sentenced in absentia to five years in jail.
The theft took place on July 21, 2008 in New Rayan area, the charge-sheet said.
Two Egyptians, who witnessed the incident, testified that they saw five men loading the items, estimated to cost QR4,000, on to a pickup from a store inside the camp.
The Egyptians said they captured three of the workers while the others drove away in the pick-up.
The police arrested all the accused and four of them were deported on an administrative order before the commencement of the trial.
January 11, 2010
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Bureaucracy, Character, Crime, Cultural, Doha, ExPat Life, Financial Issues, Interconnected, Law and Order, Qatar, Values |
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We stumbled into the upstairs lounge, all four of us, sleep muzzy and disheveled, but then again, it was 3 in the morning.
“What is that?” asked Mr. Ambassador, who is no longer Ambassador anymore, but still gets to be called that. He was asking about a wailing, like that of an injured cat, only accompanied by music.
I blushed to the roots of my hair. Fortunately, it was dark. No one could see the depth of my humiliation
“It’s the party house.”
This was punctuated by shrieks of laughter from the new influx of ‘hostesses’ invited to entertain the male guests when they ceased their karaoke singing. Doors slamming, karaoke machine at it’s highest setting, the party is in full swing.
AdventureMan broke the ensuing horror-filled silence.
“We are SO sorry. It hardly ever happens. Most of the time they aren’t even there. You just happen to be here on the ONE night.”
With the beautiful weather, we have our windows open. We make up the beds in the rooms on the other side of the house, close all the windows, and turn on the air conditioning to muffle the alcohol-fueled revelry.
“Can’t you do anything? Can’t you complain?” my good friend, the ambassador’s wife, whispered to me.
“It’s their compound. We tried complaining. Nothing happens. I can’t tell you how embarrassed I am that this would happen while you are here, as our guests,” I replied.
She laughed – diplomatically – and brushed my embarrassment aside. She’s a good friend.
January 7, 2010
Posted by intlxpatr |
Civility, Community, Cross Cultural, Doha, ExPat Life, Family Issues, Fiction, Living Conditions, Qatar, Values |
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