LOL@Stats
What happened is that two years ago I wrote a post called Halloween Warning and it got a little attention, but this year, people would Google “halloween” and then they would come to this blog entry.
It’s like how can you get all wrapped up in statistics when what happens is so random and unpredictable? On Halloween day, I got 3,172 hits. I’m a very limited blogger, I don’t have the kind of blog that attracts huge numbers – and while that may look like a huge number, it is discouraging when I know that I may never see a figure like that again.
My top all time posts are led by a picture of a birthday cake. I admit, it is a gorgeous cake, I spent a lot of time looking for just the right cake, but . . . my all time high?
There is nothing like blogging to keep you humble, and from taking yourself too seriously. 
Here Comes the WOW
The rain has been so wonderful, days of sweet, soaking rain. And early this morning, I am delighted to see the sun back again. GOOOOOOOOODDDD Morning, Kuwait. π
Early sunrise:
Just a little bit later:
And a happy, sunshine song to lift your day:
The five day forecast is nothing but SWEET:
Have a great day!
Jump Back In the Market?
Thank you, AbdulAziz, for this interesting article on today’s investment opportunities from Yahoo News: Finances where you can read the entire article>
Why Stocks Are Dirt Cheap
by Jeremy Siegel, Ph.D.
No one can guarantee the future of the stock market. But I believe that stock prices are now so extraordinarily cheap that I would be very surprised that if an investor who bought a diversified portfolio today did not make at least 20% or more on his investment in the next twelve months.
Valuations Low Worldwide
The case for equities at these levels is compelling. The last time we have seen prices this low was more than 30 years ago, when the US economy was in far worse shape than today.
The table below lists the price-to-earnings ratios of the world’s major stock markets as of October 29. It is taken directly from the Bloomberg World P-E Ratio (WPE) screen. These P-E ratios are calculated based on 2008 earnings, of which the first two quarters have already been reported and the 3rd and 4th quarters’ earnings are estimated. Keep in mind that the average historical P-E ratio of the US stock market has been 15 and that when P-E ratios are ten or lower, investors have reaped generous rewards from investing in stocks.
Except for the tech-laden Nasdaq, the US markets are selling at 10 to 11 times 2008 estimated earnings while European markets, save Switzerland, are selling between 7 and 9 times earnings. Asian stocks are also very cheap, as the Japanese Nikkei Index is selling at 11.4 times earnings, not much different than stocks in Hong Kong, Australia, and Singapore. The Chinese market, which had been selling at over 50 times earnings last year is now selling at a far more modest 15 times earnings.
Bears will claim that these P-E ratios are too low, since earnings will sharply deteriorate over the next twelve months. Indeed, the last 12 months of reported earnings on the S&P 500 Index have fallen to $51.37 from $84.92 a year earlier. On those numbers, the US market is selling at about an 18 multiple.
But this gives a very distorted picture of the market. Aggregate earnings over the past year are greatly depressed by huge write-offs not only in the financial sector but in other firms. For example, Ford, GM, and Sprint, whose aggregate market value is less than 0.2% of the S&P 500 Index, lowered the S&P’s reported earnings by about $12.00, more than 20% of the current aggregate earnings.
Even if these firms all go bankrupt and their stock prices go to zero, it would have a negligible impact on the market value of a well-diversified stock portfolio. The same is true of the financial sector as S&P adds the huge losses in banks that now have almost no value today to the earnings of profitable firms. This means that the P-E ratio of firms that are still profitable is far lower than the ratio calculated for the whole index.
Furthermore, it is a major mistake to use earnings in a recession when calculating the right valuation of the market going forward. That is because stock values are dependent on earnings far in the future, not just those estimated over the next 12 month.
Since stocks have historically sold at 15 times annual earnings, the earnings of the next twelve months contribute only 1/15 of the value of the firm, or less than 7%. The other 93% of the value of stock is realized beyond the next twelve months. Right now the “normal” level of earnings, based on trend analysis of past 15 years of earnings on the S&P 500 Index is $92 a share.
If the average 15 price-earnings ratio applied to these $92 per share normalized earnings, the S&P 500 Index would be selling at 1380, which is almost 50% above its current level. Even if it takes two, or even three years for earnings to return to thetrend line, the normalized valuation of the market is far above what it is today.
Read the rest of the article HERE.
Ain’t No Sunshine . . .
I was up to take the sunrise photo, but once again, no sunrise. The streets are wet, but the clouds are high and it looks like the rain may hold off long enough for go-to-work/school traffic. Be careful out there, Kuwait. During the recent rains there were many many more accidents, according to Traffic Police.
That color range is pretty much the colors houses are painted in the great Pacific Northwest. π
Grab your fleece, grab your sweaters – look at the temperatures expected for today:
Have a great Thursday, Kuwait.
Obama Elected President
I awoke this morning to a new world. This isn’t a political blog; I will not often discuss political events other than how they impact on lives. My family was die-hard Republican until my father retired. During Ronald Reagan’s presidency, it all changed – his domestic policies hit retirees hard. My father was a man who, when we tried to give him ideas how he could pay less in taxes, looked at us and said “Why would I want to pay less in taxes? I served our great country, they paid my salary and now they give me retirement and health care. Why would I want to pay less in taxes.” God rest his soul. But he started voting Democrat – and said Republican policies only helped the very rich, and hurt the middle-class.
I never thought I would see the day a black man would be elected President in the United States. John McCain is a decent man, he would have made a fine president, and he gave one of the most graceful speeches acknowledging his election loss I have ever heard. May God richly bless him. Obama’s win is very exciting – a new day in our country.
I called our son and talked with him – barely believing Obama could have carried Florida. I told him how moving it is to me to see a black man elected (no, I am not black, but you know me, I hate prejudice) and he said “Mom, he is SMART, too.” I couldn’t have been prouder of him than at that moment.
And this is today’s Psalm. I have to share it with you – it seems such a brilliant omen:
Psalm 72
Of Solomon.
1Give the king your justice, O God,
and your righteousness to a kingβs son.
2May he judge your people with righteousness,
and your poor with justice.
3May the mountains yield prosperity for the people,
and the hills, in righteousness.
4May he defend the cause of the poor of the people,
give deliverance to the needy,
and crush the oppressor.
5May he live* while the sun endures,
and as long as the moon, throughout all generations.
6May he be like rain that falls on the mown grass,
like showers that water the earth.
7In his days may righteousness flourish
and peace abound, until the moon is no more.
8May he have dominion from sea to sea,
and from the River to the ends of the earth.
9May his foes* bow down before him,
and his enemies lick the dust.
10May the kings of Tarshish and of the isles
render him tribute,
may the kings of Sheba and Seba
bring gifts.
11May all kings fall down before him,
all nations give him service.
12For he delivers the needy when they call,
the poor and those who have no helper.
13He has pity on the weak and the needy,
and saves the lives of the needy.
14From oppression and violence he redeems their life;
and precious is their blood in his sight.
15Long may he live!
May gold of Sheba be given to him.
May prayer be made for him continually,
and blessings invoked for him all day long.
16May there be abundance of grain in the land;
may it wave on the tops of the mountains;
may its fruit be like Lebanon;
and may people blossom in the cities
like the grass of the field.
17May his name endure for ever,
his fame continue as long as the sun.
May all nations be blessed in him;*
may they pronounce him happy.
18Blessed be the Lord, the God of Israel,
who alone does wondrous things.
19Blessed be his glorious name for ever;
may his glory fill the whole earth.Amen and Amen.
20The prayers of David son of Jesse are ended.
Great Kuwait Sand and Surf Challenge: Q8Geek
Wait until you see these entries in the Great Kuwait Sand and Surf Challenge. The Q8Geek RULES! These are going to take your breath away.
Look at the gleam on sand and log!
Oh! Oh! Well done, Q8Geek!
More Bacteria on Women’s Hands
This is from BBC Health News:
Women’s hands ‘harbour more bugs’
Human skin harbours many bacteria
Women have a greater range of different types of bacteria on the palms of their hands than men, US research suggests.
The study also found that human hands harbour far higher numbers of bacteria species than previously thought.
Using powerful gene sequencing techniques, researchers found a typical hand had roughly 150 different species of bacteria living on it.
The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences study found bacteria types varied greatly between individuals.
The researchers, from the University of Colorado at Boulder, hope their work will help scientists to establish a “healthy baseline” of bacteria species on the human hand.
This could potentially help them to identify which species are linked to specific diseases.
Lead researcher Dr Noah Fierer said: “The sheer number of bacteria species detected on the hands of the study participants was a big surprise, and so was the greater diversity of bacteria we found on the hands of women.”
The study detected and identified more than 4,700 different bacteria species across 102 human hands in the study.
However, only five species were shared among all 51 participants.
Even the right and left palms of the same individual shared an average of only 17% of the same bacteria types.
Acidic skin
Dr Fierer said that the higher bacterial diversity on women’s hands may be due to the fact that men tend to have more acidic skin, which provides a more harsh living environment for the microscopic bugs.
Alternatively, differences in sweat, oil gland or hormone production may be key – or the fact that women and men tend to make different use of cosmetics such as moisturisers.
Dr Fierer said the study also found hand washing had little impact on the diversity of bacteria found on an individual’s hands.
Maybe it’s because Women carry purses?
Election Joke: Today, You Voted
A good friend sent this non-partisan joke just in time for election day:
While walking down the street one day a US senator is tragically hit by
A truck and dies.
His soul arrives in heaven and is met by St. Peter at the entrance.
‘Welcome to heaven,’ says St. Peter. ‘Before you settle in, it seems
There is a problem. We seldom see a high official around these parts,
You see, so we’re not sure what to do with you.’
‘No problem, just let me in,’ says the man.
‘Well, I’d like to, but I have orders from higher up. What we’ll do Is
have you spend one day in hell and one in heaven. Then you Can choose
where to spend eternity.’
‘Really, I’ve made up my mind. I want to be in heaven,’ says the
Senator.
‘I’m sorry, but we have our rules.’
And with that, St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes Down,
down, down to hell. The doors open and he finds himself In the middle
of a green golf course. In the distance is a clubhouse And standing in
front of it are all his friends and other politicians Who had worked
with him.
Everyone is very happy and in evening dress. They run to greet him,
Shake his hand, and reminisce about the good times they had while
Getting rich at the expense of the people.
They play a friendly game of golf and then dine on lobster, caviar And
champagne.
Also present is the devil, who really is a very friendly guy who Has a
good time dancing and telling jokes. They are having such a Good time
that before he realizes it, it is time to go.
Everyone gives him a hearty farewell and waves while the elevator
Rises…
The elevator goes up, up, up and the door reopens on heaven where St.
Peter
Is waiting for him.
‘Now it’s time to visit heaven.’
So, 24 hours pass with the senator joining a group of contented souls
Moving from cloud to cloud, playing the harp and singing. They have a
Good time and, before he realizes it, the 24 hours have gone by and St.
Peter returns.
‘Well, then, you’ve spent a day in hell and another in heaven. Now
Choose your eternity.’
The senator reflects for a minute, then he answers: ‘Well, I would Never
have said it before, I mean heaven has been delightful, but I think I
would be better off in hell.’
So St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down, Down
to hell.
Now the doors of the elevator open and he’s in the middle of a Barren
land covered with waste and garbage.
He sees all his friends, dressed in rags, picking up the trash and
Putting it in black bags as more trash falls from above.
The devil comes over to him and puts his arm around his shoulder.
‘I don’t understand,’ stammers the senator. ‘Yesterday I was here And
there was a golf course and clubhouse, and we ate lobster and Caviar,
drank champagne, and danced and had a great time. Now there’s just a
wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable.
What happened?’
The devil looks at him, smiles and says, ‘Yesterday we were
campaigning.. .
Today you voted.’
Soft Sunrise 4 Nov 08
It’s a soft sunrise this morning, still cloudy but not so intensely so as yesterday. It looks like we could still get some rain. At the same time, it is lighter, the atmosphere not so heavy . . . it may turn out to be a gorgeous day.
Have a good day, Kuwait.
Rosy Rainfall in Kuwait
It’s been a long day, a productive day, and at last I can take a deep breath. My friend tells me it is cold out, but I have had the oven on much of the day, and our place is warm and cozy. I would love some fresh air, so I quietly close the door to the kitchen and step out on the balcony.
It is beyond fresh. It is fresh, and raining, and off in the distance, the sun is setting and the muezzin is calling everyone to prayer and it is purely a beautiful moment.
We didn’t have rain like this last year, or the year before. We had some rain two years ago, in December mostly, but still – not like this. This has been a wonderful, continuous, soaking rain, blessing Kuwait and preparing us for an amazing winter growing season. I would love to be able to see the flowers people tell me are blooming in the desert when it rains.
In Saudi Arabia, we spent a whole day travelling to see the tiny irises that would bloom in Tumayr. Here, there are still places you can’t go, because there are explosives left over from the Gulf War, and now and then a shepherd loses a leg by stepping in the wrong place.
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Early Voting in Florida
