Mixed Forecast
Interesting article from today’s Peninsula Business Section on rising mortgage trends in the United States. The views are so mixed; is the economy recovering? Are there going to be buyers for all those houses on the market? Will they find a way to forestall the next round of foreclosures as ARMs come due and new rates kick in?
US mortgages on upward trend
Web posted at: 12/27/2009 11:52:57
Source ::: LAT-WP
WASHINGTON: After hitting an all-time low in early December, the average rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 5.05 percent this week and could climb to 6 percent by the end of 2010, if not sooner, according to giant mortgage financier Freddie Mac.
The results are noteworthy because rates have not topped 5 percent since the last week of October, when they reached 5.03 percent, based on the results of this closely watched survey, which polls lenders during the first three days of every week.
Many firms regularly track interest rates and come up with slightly different numbers because they survey different lenders at different times of the day or week. But several have reported the upward trend in recent weeks. They attribute it in part to the effects of the holiday season, when demand for buying and refinancing homes dies down and financial markets coast through the end of the year.
“However, this is also a glimpse of what we’re going to see in 2010,” said Greg McBride, a senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com, a personal finance Web site.
The key catalyst for interest rates going forward will be the end of a Federal Reserve program that buys a sizable chunk of mortgage-backed securities issued by firms such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That program succeeded in immediately pushing mortgage rates well below the 6 percent mark when it was announced last year.
But the Fed has committed to winding down the program by March. The central bank is betting that by gradually tapering its purchases, private buyers of mortgage-backed securities, who have largely been absent from the market, will return and rates won’t rise much.
But Amy Crews Cutts, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac, said interest rates are bound to rise to six percent by the end of 2010 because private buyers will demand a higher rate of return on the securities than the Fed did. Lenders may have to raise the rates they charge to consumers in order to make that happen.
“Extraordinary resources have been put into keeping the rates down and supporting the mortgage markets and it’s hard to imagine that the rates can go much lower than they are,” Crews Cutts said. “Anything we get at or below five percent is a gift at this point.”
This week’s Freddie Mac survey found that the 5.05 percent average on 30-year fixed-rate loans (with an average 0.7 point) was up from 4.94 percent the previous week but down from 5.14 percent at the same time last year. The all-time weekly low since the firm started tracking the numbers in 1971 was in the first week of December, when rates fell to 4.71 percent.
Many borrowers have not been able to secure the best rates because they lack the stellar credit scores and hefty down payments that many lenders now demand. Some who have tried to refinance have not been able to qualify because their home prices have plummeted to the point where they now owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.
But anyone who can secure a loan should not wait much longer, especially if they are looking to refinance, McBride said. Homeowners are more sensitive to interest rates when they refinance than when they buy a home. “The difference between 5 percent and 5.5 percent could mean the difference between refinancing or not,” he said.
But the interest rate is less critical to people who want to buy a home, McBride said. In that case, price and affordability should trump interest rates.
Me and the FBI
Got this e-mail today from the FBI (yeh, right.)
Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)
Anti-Terrorist And Monitory Crime Division.
Federal Bureau Of Investigation.
J.Edgar.Hoover Building Washington Dc
http://www.fbi.gov/libref/directors/directmain.htm
Attn: Beneficiary,
This is to Officially inform you that it has come to our notice and we have
thoroughly Investigated with the help of our Intelligence Monitoring Network
System that you are having an illegal Transaction with Impostors claiming to be
Prof. Charles C. Soludo of the Central Bank Of Nigeria, Mr. Patrick Aziza, Mr
Frank Nweke, Dr. Philip Mogan, none officials of Oceanic Bank, Zenith Banks,
Barr. Derrick Smith, kelvin Young of HSBC, Ben of FedEx, Ibrahim Sule,Larry
Christopher, Dr. Usman Shamsuddeen, Dr. Philip Mogan, Paul Adim, Puppy Scammers are impostors claiming to be the Federal Bureau Of Investigation. During our Investigation, we noticed that the reason why you have not received your payment is because you have not fulfilled your Financial Obligation given to you in
respect of your Contract/Inheritance Payment.
Therefore, we have contacted the Federal Ministry Of Finance on your behalf and
they have brought a solution to your problem by coordinating your payment in
total USD$11,000.000.00 in an ATM CARD which you can use to withdraw money from any ATM MACHINE CENTER anywhere in the world with a maximum of $4000 to $5000 United States Dollars daily. You now have the lawful right to claim your fund in an ATM CARD.
Since the Federal Bureau of Investigation is involved in this transaction, you
have to be rest assured for this is 100% risk free it is our duty to protect the
American Citizens. All I want you to do is to contact the ATM CARD CENTER via
email for their requirements to proceed and procure your Approval Slip on your
behalf which will cost you $110.00 only and note that your Approval Slip which
contains details of the agent who will process your transaction.
CONTACT INFORMATION
NAME: Mr. Kelvin Williams
EMAIL: williamskelvin22@yahoo.cn
Telephone: +2348191213677
Do contact Mr Mr. Kelvin Williams of the ATM PAYMENT CENTER with your details:
FULL NAME:
HOME ADDRESS:
TELL:
CELL:
CURRENT OCCUPATION:
BANK NAME:
AGE:
So your files would be updated after which he will send the payment
information’s which you’ll use in making payment of $110.00 via Western Union
Money Transfer or Money Gram Transfer for the procurement of your Approval Slip
after which the delivery of your ATM CARD will be effected to your designated
home address without any further delay.We order you get back to this office
after you have contacted the ATM SWIFT CARD CENTER and we do await your response so we can move on with our Investigation and make sure your ATM SWIFT CARD gets to you.
Thanks and hope to read from you soon.
ROBERT S. MUELLER, III
DIRECTOR, FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20535
http://www.fbi.gov/libref/directors/directmain.htm
Note: Do disregard any email you get from any impostors or offices claiming to
be in possession of your ATM CARD, you are hereby advice only to be in contact
with Mr. Kelvin Williams of the ATM CARD CENTER who is the rightful person to
deal with in regards to your ATM CARD PAYMENT and forward any emails you get
from impostors to this office so we could act upon and commence investigation.
LLLOOOOOLLLLLL!
Bad grammar, bad word choices, gives you away every time, scammers!
Defense: It’s The Cops Fault; He Was Chasing Me!
Court asks motorcycle rider to pay blood money
Web posted at: 12/19/2009 2:30:29
Source ::: THE PENINSULA
DOHA: A young man who rode a motorcycle and killed a pedestrian in a bizarre crash has been asked by the court to pay QR200,000 as blood money to the family of the deceased.
The court fined the convict QR10,000 for violating traffic law. But how the man was caught by the law-enforcement agencies is quite interesting.
It so happened that the Police Patrol saw two men riding motorbikes with tremendous speed. They gave the duo a chase but in vain. They vanished in think air. But soon the police was informed that a pedestrian was hit by a speeding motorbike.
When a police party reached the spot of the crash it saw a motorbike lying near the body of the victim.
The cops were quick to realize that this was one of the two motorbikes they had given a chase sometime ago.
With help from its registration plate they zeroed in on the culprit and referred the matter to the court after investigation.
The defense lawyer argued in the court that the crash occurred because they motorbike was chased by the cops. The court, however, did not buy the argument and convicted the man.
QR 200,000 sounds like a fortune, but it is $55,000 for taking a man’s life. For a young man who was running from the cops and then tries to claim their chasing him as a defense! This case sounds like a perfect opportunity to give a community service penalty in addition to the blood money; expose this young man to the consequences of motorcycle accidents, and accident victims, allow him to see with his own eyes, and serve, the victims. It could change his life, and change his callous attitude.
Doha unscathed by downturn: PM
He’s the prime minister. I guess I am wrong. I thought I saw a lot of constructions at a stand still. It looked to me like the population of laborers has dropped. People are slipping away, expat management level workers, being let go, heading home. There are some empty units on our highly-sought after compound. Few people at Villagio are carrying shopping bags; most of the bags leaving City Center appear to be Carrefour groceries or Home Center: on sale. Rents are dropping.
It looks to me like something is dragging on the Qatar economy, it looks to me like there may be some empty seats on flights in and out. But I must be wrong.
You can read the entire article by clicking on the blue type below, which will take you to the article in The Peninsula.
Doha unscathed by downturn: PM
Web posted at: 12/8/2009 2:8:12
Source ::: The Peninsula
By Nasser al Harthy
DOHA: The global economic downturn has not affected any of Qatar’s projects, Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, H E Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Jabor Al Thani, said here yesterday.
Addressing the opening of the fourth edition of the International Petroleum Technology Conference (IPTC), Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassem said: “We, in Qatar have overcome the consequences of the crisis with minimum damages and that the crisis has not affected any of our projects being implemented, whether in the oil sector, gas sector or development and infrastructure projects undertaken by other state sectors.”
“We are moving forward with full determination to implement all our ambitious plans which focus on sustainable development in which oil, gas and industry play a basic role and constitute one of its strong pillars,” he added.
The Prime Minister noted that the world economy passed through a difficult period of recession last year leading to a sharp drop in oil and gas consumption in world markets and energy prices in general.
“Why Bank of America Fired Me”
When AdventureMan and I were young, we visited a financial advisor. He gave us some good advice. He also put us in some very bad funds. Well, bad for us – he made a lot of money on up-front charges. We learned a lot from him; we also learned a whole lot more from dealing with him about being responsible for our own money management.
One thing we learned: No one cares about you and growing/investing your money more than you do. Others may care about separating you from your money. Any time a financial institution uses the words “for your convenience” read the fine print. Always, read the customer agreements.
This very brave girl, Jackie Ramos, a former Bank of America “customer assistant” tells us what her “services” really meant. She got fired for taking a stand, but she makes a great video outlining BofA credit card collection policies.
1 in 4 US Mortgages “Under Water”
1 in 4 mortgages ‘underwater’
Report shows 10.7 million borrowers are stuck with homes that are worth less than the mortgages they owe.
By Julianne Pepitone, CNNMoney.com staff reporter
Last Updated: November 24, 2009: 12:19 PM ET
Foreclosure plague: It’s spreading
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — In a sign that more foreclosures could be on the horizon, 23% of people with mortgages owe more than their home is worth, according to a report released Tuesday.
Almost 10.7 million U.S. mortgages were “underwater” as of September, said research firm First American CoreLogic.
Another 2.3 million homeowners are within 5% of negative territory, the report said. The two figures combined comprise almost 28% of all residential properties with mortgages.
Negative equity, also called an “underwater” or “upside down” mortgage, has become more common as home values plummet. The report is closely watched because borrowers who are underwater are more likely to be foreclosed.
Would you walk away from your house?
Foreclosures have been rampant for some time, but lately the tide of decay had seemed to be slowing — so Tuesday’s report could dent optimism for the housing market over the next few months.
On the other hand, the trend that turned so many mortgages upside-down — falling home prices — has reversed the past six months. The S&P/Case-Shiller HomePrice Index has reported two consecutive quarters of increasing prices.
If home prices continue to go up or, at least stabilize, fewer mortgage borrowers will find themselves underwater in the coming months.
CoreLogic changed its methodology for the third quarter — now it accounts for payments that reduce principal, and it no longer assumes home equity credit lines have been maxed out. Using the old method, 33.8% of borrowers would have been underwater in the third quarter compared with 32.2% in the previous quarter, according to a CoreLogic spokeswoman.
State totals: The majority of underwater mortgages are heavily concentrated in five states that have particularly suffered from the housing bust: Nevada, at 65%; Arizona, at 48%; Florida, at 45%; Michigan, at 37%; and California, at 35%.
These five states have been especially beleaguered because of a high rate of prime loans that went bad. Many of those loans were option-adjustable rate mortgages, in which borrowers could choose to make minimum payments that were so low they did not even offset the interest being accumulated.
When that accumulated debt reaches a certain point — usually 10% to 25% more than the original principal — the option-ARMs loans are recast into fixed-rate mortgages. When that happens, many borrowers cannot afford the new payments.
Barbaric. Animals Left to Starve to Death
It’s hard to believe that this could be happening. This article is from Kuwait’s Al Watan and I learned about it from Mark, at 248am.com. Unbelievable. Unthinkable.
KUWAIT: It only happens in Kuwait. No other country would demand money from people already paying rent.
Initially, those renting stalls at the animal market in AlـRai thought it was a mistake, but when their shops were shut down “because of rent arrears,” business owners went berserk. In addition, the animals displayed in the stalls were left inside the locked stalls, with the proprietors unable to tend to or remove then, thereby what was a municipal disagreement has ballooned into an animal rights fiasco.
It remains unfathomable to many where the decision to charge a second “Municipality rent” arose from, when the proprietors were already paying rent to the owners of the commercial space, the Ministry of Finance. With the Municipality shutting down the stalls, and the Ministry of Finance staying silent ـ only to say: “this is not our issue” ـ the business owners are helpless as the animals howl and cry for food, with every passing day the stench of death growing ever stronger.
Al Watan Daily went to the animal market in Al Rai area and witnessed the disaster first hand.
Shopkeepers told Al Watan Daily that the Municipality had closed all the stalls over two weeks ago, “and they haven”t opened the doors even once till now. All the animals are inside the stalls, and most of them have died due to lack of water, food and air. These animals have been in cages within the stalls for 15 days and they have not seen any light, nor eaten anything.”
Ridha Ashkanani told Al Watan Daily: “We signed contracts with the State Properties Department; we pay them 300 Kuwaiti dinars per year, and we also have been paying KD 60 per year to the Municipality as for the cleaning of the area. We were forced to pay this sum although the Municipality is not taking care of the area and the place is not clean at all. The problem now is that the Municipality is asking us to pay another rent for the stalls themselves. They want KD 3 per every square meter within the shop per month. They also want the money to be paid in arrears from 1995. We can”t afford to pay all this, and there isn”t any law that requires us to pay a second rent to the Municipality.”
The situation is this: according to the traders, they have been paying a normal rental fee since 1997, which continued when the Ministry of Finance relocated their businesses to the current location, but in 2004, a Municipal inspector came and asked them to pay a “Municipality rent.”
The proprietors explained to the inspector that they were not aware of any second “Municipality rent,” and that according to the contract with the Ministry of Finance, the rent was to be paid to the ministry, and the ministry only.
After receipts were shown to the inspector that payments were being made to the ministry, he quietly withdrew and disappeared.
However, in 2006, another inspector came demanding “Municipality rent.” The traders explained, once again, to the new inspector the same story, to which he accepted their argument but demanded a KD five monthly surcharge for cleaning.
The traders saw no qualms with the demand and agreed to the nominal fee, but then some months later, the inspector returned, requiring that the cleaning fees be paid in lump sum six months in advance. After some grumbling, they acquiesced.
Oddly, some weeks later, traders were informed that instead of 6 months, it would have to be 12 months in advance. Again, they reluctantly agreed.
Now you have the current situation, where the Municipality has shut all the stalls with the animals locked inside, and is demanding the “Municipality rent,” in arrears as far back as 1995.
“Our major issue is that the animals are trapped inside the stalls, and most of them died. We are losing our business and losing the animals we have in the shops, and we are not allowed to open the shops at least to feed the animals, which have not eaten any food for 15 days,” explained Ashkanani
Ahmed, another proprietor, said: “I lost all the gold fish I had in the shop, worth KD 5,000. We want the animal rights societies to help us in our problem. We went to the State Properties Department and they didn”t help us, and stated that it”s not their responsibility. We then went to the Cabinet and they told us to go to the minister, and he also refused to help us. We finally went to the Municipality, (which refused to open the doors until they are paid), and now we are filing a case at the court and we are waiting to see what will happen.”
ـ
Last updated on Monday 2/11/2009
A Headline, and Your Challenge
This headline caught my eye in today’s Peninsula:
US HOUSING SECTOR LOOKS UP
Why did it catch my eye? I know, I know, I am an unnatural woman. I shouldn’t bother my pretty little head with these things too great for me, but I find the financial pages interesting. You would be amazed at what you can learn in the small print.
So when I saw that headline, I was intrigued, because yesterday the reports coming out remained bleak. Key phrases like “less than expected” jumped out at me.
So here is my challenge to you. Please. Read through this article and tell me if you can find one single fact that supports the promising headline. Honestly, this gave me one of my best laughs of the day.
Get ready. Get set. GO!
US housing sector looks up
Web posted at: 10/21/2009 8:50:58
Source ::: REUTERS
WASHINGTON: New construction of US homes rose less than expected in September as ground-breaking activity for multi-family dwellings fell sharply, highlighting the economy’s uneven recovery path.
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday housing starts rose 0.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units, below market expectations for 610,000. August’s housing starts were revised down to 587,000 units.
A separate report from the Labor Department showed producer prices dropped an unexpected 0.6 percent in September. Analysts had anticipated prices would remain unchanged after rising 1.7 percent in August.
“The housing numbers still look somewhat soft and that’s a reflection of weakness in the consumer. The low PPI numbers mean that the Fed is in a position to keep rates unchanged for a while,” said Subodh Kumar, chief investment strategist at Subodh Kumar & Associates in Toronto.
US stock futures, which were lifted earlier after strong quarterly results from bellwethers Apple and Caterpillar, trimmed their gains on the soft housing and price data.
New construction activity in the volatile multifamily segment dropped 15.2 percent to an annual pace of 89,000 units. Groundbreaking for single-family homes, the largest component of the housing market, rose 3.9 percent in September to an annual rate of 501,000 units.
Compared to September last year, housing starts were down 28.2 percent.
The housing market, the main catalyst of the worst US recession since the 1930s, is crawling out of a three-year slump and residential investment probably contributed to economic growth in the third quarter, according to analysts.
New building permits, which give a sense of future home construction, unexpectedly fell 1.2 percent to an annual pace of 573,000 units in September, the Commerce Department said. That was the biggest percentage decline since April.
Analysts had forecast permits at 600,000 units. Building permits were down 28.9 percent compared to September last year.
A survey on Monday showed confidence among US home builders edged down in October amid worries over the expiration of a $8,000 government tax credit for first-time buyers.
The incentive, which ends next month, has been widely cited as the main force behind the housing market’s steady recovery.
Separately, prices paid at the farm and factory gate fell 4.8 percent on the year, which was steeper than forecasts for a 4.2 percent drop. Excluding food and energy, prices declined by 0.1 percent in September from the prior month, and were up 1.8 percent on the year.
“The headline PPI numbers fuel the deflationary fears,” said Doug Bender, managing director at McQueen, Ball & Associates in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania.
Where Great Decisions are Made
Today, on my way home from a marathon-fun day, even though it was full of errands, I got to thinking great thoughts – in my car. Some of my best ideas come when I am sitting in traffic, something about the enforced nothing-to-do frees up my unconscious to tackle things I don’t otherwise think about.
One of the things I was thinking about was what, when I studied it, was called The Decision Making Process. It’s something you study in Political Science, and, although I can’t say this for sure because I haven’t specialized in these other areas, I am betting you would also study the process in Business, in Economics, in Engineering . . . when you know the process by which decisions are made, so the theory goes, you can get better at predicting how the decision making will go, what people will decide.
Or so the theory goes. . .
My personal observation is that human beings are highly unpredictable, and sometimes will make an opposite decision, even an irrational decision, in order not to be so predictable. I hate to be so cynical, but I think we are not so rational as we like to think we are.
In my Kuwait life, I remember being at a not-so-important meeting, more just a gathering, but at one point, I saw four people – influential people – meeting off in a corner, very casually, probably no one else even noticed, but they were deciding an outcome of an election, I realized later that day. OOps – not THE Kuwait election, my friends, no no no, a much lesser election. But that was where the decision was really made. These four quiet people were people who had the respect of others, and once they decided, they quietly shared their opinion with others, who shared their opinion with others and on it went, until the deed was done.
I have seen decisions made in a swimming pool. I know decisions are made on golf courses. I was hired for one job once after attending a concert, and for another because I had a responsible position in my church (it had nothing to do with the job I was hired for, but the skills were transferable.) I was hired once because my hair and eyes matched another woman working in the front office, and the boss wanted a “matched pair.” (I didn’t know that until later.)
I know that at one time AdventureMan helped lay out a military base. He said they were in a truck, and as they drove along someone dropped big stones out the back to mark the boundaries. Don’t you love it?
Gulf women tell me that weddings are important; young women are often spotted by future mother-in-laws, so moms try to make sure that their daughters are well appointed for major weddings, major events where they may be on display . . . and then they ask around checking on character and personality and suitability. But I wonder on what basis those decisions are really made, deep down? Family alliances? Securing a future? Business connections? I know there are rare alliances based on true and lasting love; I wonder how often that happens?
I know there are matrixes, and even simple two-column + – lists by which people can rationally work out what to decide. What I am cynical about – after all the matrixes are filled out, after all the plusses and minuses are totaled – I think that the decision can go counter to rationality, because we are – if not irrational – then intuitive, we are people who make decisions with other than our conscious minds. I think our hearts get involved, and you KNOW that feelings/emotions get involved. Sometimes we have “a gut feeling”; sometimes we know something on an unconscious level that we don’t know on a conscious level. If we all acted in our own rational self interest, there would not be young drivers dying on our roads, people would not be irrationally exuberant about investments, young people would not fall in love with the wrong people and life would sure a lot more dull, wouldn’t it?
I am cynical even about decisions made at the highest levels, because even decisions made by boards and after studies – even these decisions are ultimately based by human beings, and sometimes on “hunches.”
So I am wondering if YOU have had similar experiences? Have you seen major decisions made irrationally?
All this because I was stuck in traffic . . . .
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Early Voting in Florida
Here There and Everywhere 