Some Forecasters See a Fast Economic Recovery
From today’s New York Times: Business:
Economics as the dismal science? Not in some quarters.
In the midst of the deepest recession in the experience of most Americans, many professional forecasters are optimistically heading into the new year declaring that the worst may soon be over.
For this rosy picture to play out, they are counting on the Obama administration and Congress to come through with a substantial stimulus package, at least $675 billion over two years.
They say that will get the economy moving again in the face of persistently weak spending by consumers and businesses, not to mention banks that are reluctant to extend credit.
If the dominoes fall the right way, the economy should bottom out and start growing again in small steps by July, according to the December survey of 50 professional forecasters by Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Investors seemed to be in a similarly optimistic mood on Friday, bidding up stocks by about 3 percent.
But in the absence of that government stimulus, the grim economic headlines of 2008 will probably continue for some time, these forecasters acknowledge.
Read the entire article HERE
Uncle Jay Explains the News (US) from 2008
Tongue-in-cheek funny . . . This came out mid-December, or I am sure there would also be a shot at more recent events . . .
Rose-Colored Sunrise 31 Dec 2008
When we got up this morning, it was DARK, at a time when it is normally lighter. When I looked out my window, there were heavy clouds, everything looked dark and sombre:
Minutes later, the sun begins to break through and the clouds look less substantial:
And then – the light! The sun breaks through!
And, a short time later, the day shimmers in silver and gold:
All that drama, and the morning is yet young! Wooo HOOOO, what a day this might be!
These are funny days, December 29th – 31st, days in which those who follow the Islamic calendar are already in the new year, and days in which we are still waiting. Tomorrow we will all be back on track, starting off a new year. In Kuwait, schools this week reported 85% absenteeism. Schools were open – but the students didn’t come!
AdventureMan and I briefly reviewed our year 2008 before praying this morning. For us – even though our financial investments are (on paper) in the depths – this has been a very good year. We have each other, and we have our sweet Qatteri Cat.
We have been greatly blessed to have had more time with our son this year than any year we can remember in the last ten years. We love our time with him, and with his wife. We have had weddings, and lots of family times with my family. We have had wonderful times with our friends, old and new. God has blessed us abundantly.
In every way that really matters, life is sweet. We thank God for 2008. We thank God, even for the challenges that 2009 will bring.
Brothers and sisters, we wish you peace, peace in your spirits, peace in your families, peace in your nations, and a desire to meet all obstacles with peaceful intentions. We wish you peaceful times with family, and peaceful resolutions of any conflicts. May your New Year be filled with unexpected blessings!
Ask the Builder
Those of you who have read this blog for any amount of time know that I love house stuff. When I am in my own house, I do a lot of my own painting, wall papering, and general fixing. I remember being a kid and wanting a tool box – I like doing things with my hands. I have reupholstered chairs, even a couch (the couch went well, not every project went well, however!) and I am always interested in how things are done – how do you tile a floor, how do you fix a gutter, etc.
When we were in Pensacola, I saw that I need to re-mortar some of the bricks in our yard – we have brick stairs and brick walls, and some of the mortar is beginning to crumble. So I went online, and found a whole bunch of sites, but the site I like the very best is Ask the Builder.
Now, I get a newsletter from him every now and then. There is a lot of stuff I get, ads from stores, people who want me to spend money – stuff that I delete most of the time, unless I have a specific need. But I never delete Ask the Builder. I read the newsletter from top to bottom, and some of the things I copy and save, because while I don’t need them now, I know I will need them later. His advice is down to earth, easy to read and just plain helpful.
You can subscribe to the newsletter by going to the above website. Happy puttering!
Leafing Seattle
A quick stop by the bank to stock up on cash before we leave for Kuwait, and although it is raining furiously, we take delight in the gorgeous leaves all over the pavement (dangerously slick but oh so beautiful.)
One Step Down
It was a real eye opener, being back in the USA. AdventureMan had an interesting observation, something he learned a long time ago in a sociology class. It has to do with dining in restaurants. When a guy eats his lunch out every day, he goes to one kind of place, and then when he takes his family out for a meal on Sunday, he goes one step up, takes them to a better restaurant than he would go to every day.
As we travelled in different parts of the United States, what we saw was just the opposite – one step down. People we know still have jobs, still make their house payments, still have the same income. The PERCEPTIONS however, are very different. People are nervous, maybe even a little worried about their jobs. They are not FEELING as prosperous as they felt last year, or the year before. They are spending less. They are going to eat out, but will eat out at that one-step-down restaurant, and not the higher priced restaurant.
As we Christmas shopped, we saw HUGE differences. The Macy’s and the Dillard’s and the big delightfully fancy stores are like ghost towns, and for good reason. They have drastically cut back on their inventory. Where you had to fight your way through the crowded racks a couple years ago, there is a lot of space this year. I didn’t see anything very exciting in terms of fashions or shoes. The Targets and the Fred Meyers (a Pacific Northwest chain) were packed with shoppers, prices were cut, and products were flying off the shelves.
A newspaper article said that what people are buying are . . . appliances. Things people really use – toasters, mixers, etc. The big difference is, they are insisting on appliances in COLOR – carmine reds, blueberrys, greens – chartreuse seems to be big this year, for Christmas, for clothing, and for decorations. Even for Christmas cookies. Chartreuse and pink are this year’s Christmasy red and green. Total hoot. But when people start drawing back from spending, they buy practical things – in fanciful colors. I remember reading once that when times get tough, lipstick sales soar. Women will spend on something small to make themselves feel good, and lipstick does the trick.
The trip was a real eye opener. AdventureMan has sticker shock. I just laugh. I think Kuwait is expensive! AdventureMan doesn’t buy groceries. I remember one time we were together at the Co-op and he couldn’t believe what we were spending on milk – but what are you going to do? Not buy milk? I have always used powdered milk for baking, but with the Chinese thing, I even worry about powdered milk.
Are you going through sticker shock? Are your spending habits changing? Do you eat in restaurants, or are you eating more at home?
Books Behind the Counter
“Hey Mom, take a look” said Law and Order Man as we were about to walk out of the local Barnes and Noble. He was pointing to the selection of books by Chuck Palahniuk, all on shelves behind the counter.
I had noticed he has a collection of Chuck Palahniuk books, and I have read reviews by Kuwait bloggers, so I had asked him about the books, would he recommend them.
“You wouldn’t like them” he said. He knows me pretty well, and often recommends authors I might like. I do the same with him. If he says not to bother, I won’t bother.
“I asked the clerk why all the Chuck Palahniuk books were behind the counter, if people steal them,” my son went on, “and she wouldn’t exactly say that people walk off without paying for them, but she said that they are VERY popular books, so I assume that’s what she meant.”
Merchants Struggle for Survival
This is from today’s New York Times. You can read the rest of the article by clicking HERE.
By STEPHANIE ROSENBLOOM
Published: November 27, 2008
Black Friday, long the Super Bowl of shopping, is at hand, but it may have become nearly irrelevant. Check out the deals that were already on offer earlier this week:
Diamond earrings at Macy’s were chopped to $249 from $700. A Marc Jacobs bag at Saks, originally $995, fell to $248.45. And for men, a Ted Baker suit at Lord & Taylor was selling not for the usual $895, but for $399.99.
Such crazy prices are a sign of the times, and analysts expect many more such deals during one of the toughest holiday seasons in decades.
Laden with excess inventory, hungry for sales and worried because of five fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, the nation’s retailers went into a price-cutting frenzy long before the day after Thanksgiving, the traditional start of the holiday shopping season. For weeks, they have been trying to outdo one another to capture the attention of consumers who have become numb to run-of-the-mill discounts. As the latest T. J. Maxx slogan goes: “Every day is Black Friday.”
In fact, retailers have had so many early “doorbusters” — jaw-dropping deals usually reserved for Black Friday — that “it’s almost not necessary to get up at 5 in the morning,” said Bill Dreher, a senior retailing analyst with Deutsche Bank Securities.
But the retailers are just getting warmed up.
The Toys “R” Us chain is planning the deepest discounts in its history on Friday, with 50 percent more doorbusters than last year. Other retailers are promising that their deals will be even more striking than the sales they have already unveiled — with Wal-Mart, for instance, promising large flat-panel televisions for less than $400.
Such bargains are likely to set the tone for the shopping season to come.
“There’s no reason to suspect this will end,” said Dan de Grandpre, editor in chief of Dealnews.com, which has been tracking Black Friday deals for about a decade. “This kind of heavy discounting will continue until we see some retailers start to fail, until they start to go out of business.”
Indeed, the intense competition could erode profits at many chains. Some retailing analysts even fear it could condition consumers to shop only when merchandise is deeply discounted.
Still, stores plan to pull out all the stops on Friday and through the weekend. After all, November and December sales make up 25 to 40 percent of many retailers’ annual sales, according to the National Retail Federation, an industry group. (The day after Thanksgiving is called Black Friday because it was, historically, the day that many retailers moved into the black, or became profitable for the year.)
The deals were laid out in circulars tucked into newspapers on Thanksgiving Day, on retailers’ Web sites and on sites dedicated to sales and shopping strategies, like bfads.net and gottadeal.com. Many stores planned to open just after midnight Friday morning, and others — including Wal-Mart, Sears, Macy’s, Best Buy, Circuit City, Toys “R” Us and Old Navy — set their openings for 5 a.m. Target will open at 6 a.m. and BJ’s Wholesale Club at 7 a.m.
Read the entire article HERE.
Somalia: Pirates – and Dumping
This is a report from BBC News. I published a piece previously on Somalia on March 11, and blogger Shafi said the following:
“When wealthier nations align their fleet of vessels at Somali coast to fish illegally (estimated at around $6 million as the article says) and dump toxic waste in some parts of the water, aren’t they doing a greater evil and a major harm to the shell-shattared country and her people than the pirates for whom piracy is itself a survival method?”
The statement caught me totally by surprise. I went looking to see if it was true, and it was.
Shafi has a fascinating blog, and if you have some time, go take a look. Meanwhile, I am happy to see glimpses of a fuller picture coming forth in the news:
Ex-Somali Army Colonel Mohamed Nureh Abdulle lives in Harardhere – the town closest to where the hijacked Saudi oil tanker, Sirius Star is moored. He tells the BBC, via phone from his home, that the town’s residents are more concerned about the apparent dumping of toxic waste than piracy.
The Harardhere-born military man advises the town’s elders on security matters and is in his fifties.
Somalia has been wracked by conflict since 1991 – when its last national government was forced from power.
The super-tanker is close to our coast. It is a very, very long ship. Some time ago we had our own problems of piracy in our town but that has not happened lately.
The people who have been hijacking these ships in our seas are not from our region. We do not know any of the guys on the super-tanker and they haven’t made any contact with us.
You know, our problem is not piracy. It is illegal dumping.
These problems have been going for sometime and the world knows about it. The Americans have been here in the region for a long time now – they know about the pollution.
Instead, no, the world is only talking about the pirates and the money involved.
Mysterious illnesses
Meanwhile, there has been something else going on and it has been going on for years. There are many dumpings made in our sea, so much rubbish.
It is dumped in our seas and it washes up on our coastline and spreads into our area.
A few nights ago, some tanks came out from the high sea and they cracked it seems and now they are leaking into the water and into the air.
The first people fell ill yesterday afternoon. People are reporting mysterious illnesses; they are talking about it as though it were chicken pox – but it is not exactly like that either. Their skin is bad. They are sneezing, coughing and vomiting.
This is the first time it has been like this; that people have such very, very bad sickness.
The people who have these symptoms are the ones who wake early, before it is light, and herd their livestock to the shore to graze. The animals are sick from drinking the water and the people who washed in the water are now suffering.
TimesOnline ran an article on Somalia after the tsunami, and the contaminants that had been washed ashore:
“The current situation along the Somali coastline poses a very serious environmental hazard not only in Somalia but also in the eastern Africa sub-region,” the report says. Toxic waste was first dumped in Somalia in the late 1980s, but accelerated sharply during the civil war which followed the 1991 overthrow of the late dictator Mohamed Siad Barre.
Local warlords, many of them former ministers in Siad Barre’s last government, received large payments from Swiss and Italian firms for access to their respective fiefdoms.
Most of the waste was simply dumped on remote beaches in containers and leaking disposable barrels.
Somali sources close to the trade say that the dumped materials included radioactive uranium, lead, cadmium, mercury and industrial, hospital, chemical and various other toxic wastes. In 1992, Unep said that European firms were involved in the trade, but because of the high level of insecurity in the country there were never any accurate assessments of the extent of the problem.
In 1997 and 1998, the Italian newspaper Famiglia Cristiana, which jointly investigated the allegations with the Italian branch of Greenpeace, published a series of articles detailing the extent of illegal dumping by a Swiss firm, Achair Partners, and an Italian waste broker, Progresso.
The news is so much more complicated than it appears. How do we stop all these wrongful, hurtful things? Do not we have a responsibility toward the poorest nations? If we – meaning the richest nations – don’t stop this dumping now, is there not every chance in the world that it will come back to haunt us?
Sharing Faith
Several years ago, a woman put a book in my hands and said “I got this for you because I think you will love it.” It was kind of a shock; I didn’t know this woman all that well, but she knew me better. I loved the book, and I ordered a workbook to go with it, and I loved doing it. It was a forty day study called The Purpose Driven Life.
If you think I am trying to convert you, I’m not. Just as this woman wasn’t trying to convert me. The Purpose Driven Life is all about trying to make your walk in faith more meaningful. It starts with the premise that each one of us is uniquely created, and has a unique function to fill. The book has changed how I live my life. Intrigued? Go read the book!
I also subscribe to their daily e-mail, and today it was all about gaining wisdom from reading THE BOOK, learning from our own experiences and those of others:
Write down the major life lessons you’ve learned so you can share them with others. We should be grateful Solomon did this, because it gave us the books of Proverbs and Ecclesiastes, which are filled with practical lessons on living. Imagine how much needless frustration could be avoided if we learned from each other’s life lessons.
Mature people develop the habit of extracting lessons from everyday experiences. I urge you to make a list of your life lessons. You haven’t really thought about them thoroughly unless you’ve written them down. Below are a few questions to jog your memory and get your started:
So what?
What has God taught me from failure?
What has God taught me from a lack of money?
What has God taught me from pain or sorrow or depression?
What has God taught me through waiting?
What has God taught me through illness?
What has God taught me from disappointment?
What have I learned from my family, my church, my relationships, my small group, and my critics?
It felt like a jolt of electricity going through me when I read those questions. Sometimes, I think I am not very bright; sometimes I don’t even learn from my own experiences and mistakes! As I read these questions, I started thinking how the financial crisis has energized us and changed our plans. We thought we would have a hunk of money to work with when we retire, and suddenly that hunk has shrunk! Meanwhile, we are instigating all kinds of new strategies to make our money go farther. You would think it would be depressing, but the truth is . . . we are having fun! I’d forgotten the thrill of the hunt; getting items for good prices, finding substitutes . . . and the questions above reminded me that at one time we knew a lot about stretching money.
AdventureMan is a great cook, and truly, if we ate fewer meals out, we probably wouldn’t have to worry about our waistlines. I used to bake all our bread, when we lived in Tunis, and only had access to wonderful baguettes. I even baked English muffins, my favorite.
Every one of the questions he asked today reminded me of a lesson I had learned . . . and then kind of let go. I didn’t exactly forget, but now all these life-lessons are fresh again!
You don’t have to be Christian, or Moslem, or a even a believer to think about these questions. Take a look at the questions and see what YOU have learned from life’s circumstances.
Where do YOU find wisdom?
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