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Some Forecasters See a Fast Economic Recovery

From today’s New York Times: Business:

Economics as the dismal science? Not in some quarters.

In the midst of the deepest recession in the experience of most Americans, many professional forecasters are optimistically heading into the new year declaring that the worst may soon be over.

For this rosy picture to play out, they are counting on the Obama administration and Congress to come through with a substantial stimulus package, at least $675 billion over two years.

They say that will get the economy moving again in the face of persistently weak spending by consumers and businesses, not to mention banks that are reluctant to extend credit.

If the dominoes fall the right way, the economy should bottom out and start growing again in small steps by July, according to the December survey of 50 professional forecasters by Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Investors seemed to be in a similarly optimistic mood on Friday, bidding up stocks by about 3 percent.

But in the absence of that government stimulus, the grim economic headlines of 2008 will probably continue for some time, these forecasters acknowledge.

Read the entire article HERE

January 3, 2009 - Posted by | Financial Issues, Interconnected, Leadership, News, Political Issues, Social Issues, Statistics


  1. I can’t prevent a smile when ‘professional forecasters’ announce their expectations at the start of each year. ‘Professional forecasters’ – in my mind I always have to think about that Gypsy at the kermis who’s turning the cards.

    A feature of a financial advisor / forecaster is that in January he predicts you in which direction the economy will develop, while at the end of the year he’ll explain you why it didn’t.

    Funny people 😉

    Comment by Marcel | January 3, 2009 | Reply

  2. Marcel – I could not agree with you more. Many forecasters forecast what they hope to see, many forecasters motivate by fear – and not a single one of them really knows what is around the corner.

    Comment by intlxpatr | January 4, 2009 | Reply

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