Where Great Decisions are Made
Today, on my way home from a marathon-fun day, even though it was full of errands, I got to thinking great thoughts – in my car. Some of my best ideas come when I am sitting in traffic, something about the enforced nothing-to-do frees up my unconscious to tackle things I don’t otherwise think about.
One of the things I was thinking about was what, when I studied it, was called The Decision Making Process. It’s something you study in Political Science, and, although I can’t say this for sure because I haven’t specialized in these other areas, I am betting you would also study the process in Business, in Economics, in Engineering . . . when you know the process by which decisions are made, so the theory goes, you can get better at predicting how the decision making will go, what people will decide.
Or so the theory goes. . .
My personal observation is that human beings are highly unpredictable, and sometimes will make an opposite decision, even an irrational decision, in order not to be so predictable. I hate to be so cynical, but I think we are not so rational as we like to think we are.
In my Kuwait life, I remember being at a not-so-important meeting, more just a gathering, but at one point, I saw four people – influential people – meeting off in a corner, very casually, probably no one else even noticed, but they were deciding an outcome of an election, I realized later that day. OOps – not THE Kuwait election, my friends, no no no, a much lesser election. But that was where the decision was really made. These four quiet people were people who had the respect of others, and once they decided, they quietly shared their opinion with others, who shared their opinion with others and on it went, until the deed was done.
I have seen decisions made in a swimming pool. I know decisions are made on golf courses. I was hired for one job once after attending a concert, and for another because I had a responsible position in my church (it had nothing to do with the job I was hired for, but the skills were transferable.) I was hired once because my hair and eyes matched another woman working in the front office, and the boss wanted a “matched pair.” (I didn’t know that until later.)
I know that at one time AdventureMan helped lay out a military base. He said they were in a truck, and as they drove along someone dropped big stones out the back to mark the boundaries. Don’t you love it?
Gulf women tell me that weddings are important; young women are often spotted by future mother-in-laws, so moms try to make sure that their daughters are well appointed for major weddings, major events where they may be on display . . . and then they ask around checking on character and personality and suitability. But I wonder on what basis those decisions are really made, deep down? Family alliances? Securing a future? Business connections? I know there are rare alliances based on true and lasting love; I wonder how often that happens?
I know there are matrixes, and even simple two-column + – lists by which people can rationally work out what to decide. What I am cynical about – after all the matrixes are filled out, after all the plusses and minuses are totaled – I think that the decision can go counter to rationality, because we are – if not irrational – then intuitive, we are people who make decisions with other than our conscious minds. I think our hearts get involved, and you KNOW that feelings/emotions get involved. Sometimes we have “a gut feeling”; sometimes we know something on an unconscious level that we don’t know on a conscious level. If we all acted in our own rational self interest, there would not be young drivers dying on our roads, people would not be irrationally exuberant about investments, young people would not fall in love with the wrong people and life would sure a lot more dull, wouldn’t it?
I am cynical even about decisions made at the highest levels, because even decisions made by boards and after studies – even these decisions are ultimately based by human beings, and sometimes on “hunches.”
So I am wondering if YOU have had similar experiences? Have you seen major decisions made irrationally?
All this because I was stuck in traffic . . . .
Suq al Waqif Bird Market
As we were heading into the Suq al Waqif for breakfast Saturday morning (Yes! Several of the restaurants are open for breakfast!) we saw a man and his son, both carrying falcons.
AdventureMan joked that they are hired by the administrators to walk around adding local color. We scoffed. Maybe someday, but for right now, these are still real people, with their own falcons. We know because our Kuwaiti visitor stopped them and asked about the falcons. They were so sweet and so delighted to tell us about their birds, and to allow us to photograph them:
There was also a lively bird auction going on:
What we love about the renovated market is that it is still a true market, where real people by daily items for use.
Farewell Dar al Thaqafa
We were sitting in a meeting when two friends rushed in, full of news of the fire down at the Souk al Diraa / Souk al Asseiri, familiarly known as The Fabric Souks. Our friend’s car had been near where the blaze broke out and they had been stuck while the firemen refused to allow her near her car, and finally they moved it out of the way for her, covered with ash and dirty water, but otherwise unharmed.
We all waited breathlessly to hear if the fabric souks were harmed. They weren’t. For such a big blaze, such a long-lasting fire, no lives were lost, no one was hurt, as far as anyone knows.
But in this morning’s paper, I see that while the fire started out a small fire, somehow, it was not contained, and in the clutter and chaos of the older souks, it grew, fed by stacks of stored goods and rubbish.
One of the victims was an old friend of mine – the Dar al Thaqafa. Little Diamond and I would often find treasures there, books you couldn’t find anywhere else. There are other bookstores in this chain, but this one, this Dar al Thaqafa was THE oldest bookstore in Doha, stocking school supplies, children and adult fiction and non-fiction, textbooks and obscure Islamic scholarly works. It was a quiet place, an old fashioned book-store, tucked behind the very tacky toy vender where I once bought both a dancing Osama bin Laden and a dancing Saddam Hussein.
We are sorry to see this old friend go. (They gave me permission to take these photos)
The area was full of small merchants, most of whom I suspect could ill-afford this loss of merchandise and income. I took a photo of an alleyway in the area of the fire (taken in July)
Home Foreclosures: The Storm That’s Yet to Come
This is just an excerpt from a much longer article I found on the AOL Money and Finance Site which you can access to read the entire article, and find others like it, by clicking on the blue type.
Experts are saying that there is a turn-around. I believe it, I also see the improving signs, but the wreckage will remain, and may even get worse, for some time to come in the real-estate markets.
Home foreclosures move up-market as discounting pushes prices down
Lita Epstein
A greater number of foreclosures are hitting the high-end real estate markets in 2009 as price discounting continues to throw more and more properties underwater. It’s like a self-fulfilling prophecy: As some homeowners see their homes’ values drop below the balances due on their mortgages, they give up trying to save their homes.
Zillow’s chief economist, Stan Humphries, found that while high-end markets accounted for only 16 percent of foreclosures in 2006, by July 2009, 30 percent of foreclosures hit the top third of homes. “That means that top-tier homes make up almost twice the proportion of foreclosures as they did just three years ago,” Humphries wrote on his blog.
Foreclosures are no longer a primarily subprime problem. While in 2006 about 55 percent of foreclosures came on subprime loans, in 2009 subprimes represent just 35 percent of foreclosures, another 35 percent are in the middle tier and 30 percent are in the top tier. The primary contributing factor is higher delinquency rates in Prime, Alt-A and Option ARM mortgage products.
According to the Amherst Security Group, this problem won’t go away any time soon, because:
• Loans are transitioning into delinquency/foreclosure at a rapid pace, but moving out at a slow pace;
• Cure rates are low. In other words, fewer people are paying their past-due amounts and getting back on track.
• Loans are taking longer to liquidate. In other words, the length of time between the start of the foreclosure process and the point when the lender gets control of the property is growing.
The Amherst Mortgage Insight report notes that there are currently 7 million homes in a shadow market — homes that are either in delinquency or in foreclosure, but not yet on the market. This number translates into 135 percent of a year of existing home sales, which means that whatever numbers you’re seeing now about homes sales, they don’t truly reflect the storm that’s yet to come.
Driving Safety to Improve in Kuwait
I used to read a lot of science fiction. I can’t always remember the stories, but sometimes the concepts stick with me. I remember one story about a guy who gets to the future to discover nobody is as bright as they are in our time. One of the things they do to prevent the not-so-bright drivers from hurting themselves is to make the cars very rubbery and very slow, but the cars all make whoooooshing noises like they are going really really fast, so all the drivers are happy.
Kuwait loses a lot of young men, particularly, but also young women, to car accidents. Many pedestrians in Kuwait lose their lives, some stepping right in front of cars.
From today’s Arab Times: Kuwait
Strategy needed to counter hike in Kuwait’s road accidents: minister
KUWAIT CITY, Oct 11: Making our roads safer is in the interest of the nation’s progress as most of the deaths in traffic accidents involve youngsters and children, who are the future of our nation, said Kuwait’s Minister of Interior Sheikh Jaber Khaled Al-Sabah on behalf of HH the Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser Al-Mohammed Al-Sabah at the International Conference on Traffic in Kuwait Sunday.
The conference, held under the patronage of the prime minister at Holiday Inn Hotel, was organized by Kuwait Society for Traffic Safety, and was attended by delegates from the US, Turkey, UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Jordan and other countries. Some of them also gave lectures. The Deputy Minister of Interior of Ukraine, Brigadier Oleksandr Savchenko, was a special guest at the conference.
The interior minister stressed the need for strategies to tackle the crisis of increasing road accidents in Kuwait based on the experiences of countries that have successfully handled the issue. “The lessons learnt from the conference must be implemented in Kuwait and all the government departments must cooperate with one another for bringing about positive changes in this direction.”
He also urged people from all walks of life to contribute to make roads safer “as it is the responsibility of the whole community.”
In the key note address, the chief of Kuwait Society for Traffic Safety said that road accidents in Kuwait have taken away more than 300,000 lives in the past, and caused severe disabilities. “The average age of those dying in accidents is 20. Between 1995 and 2008, more than 5000 people lost their lives in traffic accidents in Kuwait.”
Giving further statistics, he noted that 2.5 percent of Kuwait’s GDP is lost in accidents, “while in countries like the US it is only 0.1 percent of their GDP.
“According to WHO’s report, there are over 2 million accidents taking place every year, incurring losses to the tune of $2 billion.
“Kuwait Society for Traffic Safety will be soon launching a five-year program in Jan 2010 to bring about a change in the attitudes of people towards driving.”
Prof Fernand Cohen of Drexel University, USA, was the first speaker at the conference. He spoke on the topic, “How much can technological advancement increase traffic safety?”
He began by saying that the issue of traffic safety begins with man’s attitude. “To change traffic safety, we have to address that issue first.”
Prof Cohen said that technological advancement can reduce traffic accidents by up to 32 percent. He based his arguments on reliable studies in the field. “When you compare this percentage against the total number of accidents in the US every year, 5.8 million, it makes a significant difference.
“Basic safety features like seat belts and airbags have all become a standard feature in our cars, and have contributed to making our cars safer. But we have to go beyond that.”
Estimate
The professor mentioned studies estimate that deaths due to traffic accidents in the US will go down to 25,000 by 2020. “In 2004, the total number of road kills in the US was 43,000.
“We are moving more and more towards hybrid navigation system in car involving man-machine interaction. The car will make up for the shortfalls in the driver.
The professor said that the new technological approach to making roads safer must have a preventive rather than a punitive approach. “The focus should be crash avoidance technology. There should also be ‘Psychological Impact Technology.’
The emerging technologies, he noted, “looks at solutions such as a visual or audio alert signal for corrective action to avoid an imminent crash. There could be measures to make the car intervene and apply brakes when needed.”
Under crash avoidance technology, the professor presented technologies such as blind-spot detection, which provide greater visibility to drivers. “Rear view cameras can eliminate threat to pedestrians, children or animals while a car is backing.
“Lane Departure Warning can tell you if you are too fast to change lanes. It can prevent you from wandering out of lane.
Monitors
“The Wake-You-Up feature monitors a driver’s eyes, heart rate and other factors and gives a signal if the driver shows a tendency to fall asleep.”
He also touched upon other technologies such as sensors to indicate approaching vehicles, monitors to check tyre pressure, adaptive headlights that turn when the car is negotiating a curve and rollover prevention systems among others.
The professor then discussed technologies that can be incorporated on the road to make driving safer: warning signs prior to the red lights to warn cars to slow down; sensors at red lights to measure the speed of an oncoming car and prolong the duration of the signal if need be to allow a speeding car to pass; and encouraging drivers to drive at a particular speed, which would allow them to have green lights at every signal.
Some of the other topics handled during the conference were: The Lebanese Experience in Traffic Awareness; State of Road Safety Research in the US; Traffic Strategy for Kuwait.
By Valiya S. Sajjad
Arab Times Staff
Karabaa in Transition
This post is for my friends not here, friends who often accompanied me on trips to Karabaa and all the funky magical shops we would find there. I dropped off the towels at the Mumtaz Tailor to be embroidered, English on one end, Arabic on the other, and while the devastation is no longer so gut-wrenchingly stunning as it was – I guess I am becoming desensitized – I can also see changes.
A lot of the rubble has been carted away. So it makes me wonder, is this what The Pearl is being built on? Is rubble from the old Suq al Waqif and these old buildings along Musherib and Karabaa going to the sea to become reclaimed land? If so, isn’t this going to boggle the minds of archaeologists a couple thousand years from now who are going to find all this stuff jumbled together and try to figure it out?
Yes, yes, it’s true, my mind does wander into trivial areas . . .
From the old parking lot, looking towards Karabaa where the honey man used to be:
To help you know what you are looking at – remember the sign that shows people how to park? It’s still standing – so far 🙂
I wanted you to be able to see just how high the pile of rubble is:
All the rubble that was The Garden is now gone, as if it never was:
OK, now, in the midst of all this noise and demolition, the rubble and the trucks and bulldozers, there is this oasis of serenity. I often see old men sitting outside on those old fashioned built-in-plaster seating areas, or on the bench. Inside, it looks like it might even be a home for old indigents, but sort of palatial, very green, and well kept up. Is there anyone who can tell me what this is?
The Help by Kathryn Stockett
In my book club last year, one of the themes that continued to arise as we read books from many cultures was how we are perceived by the people we hire to help us in our homes. In The White Tiger, a Man Booker Award Winner, the main character lucks into a job working for a family as a driver. We see the people for whom he works from the inside, their sweet acts and all their flaws. We see how callous they can be, and, ultimately, how the driver takes his revenge and becomes his own boss. (Not one of my favorite books, but then again, I’m still thinking about it a year later, so there is something to be said for it.)
In Half of a Yellow Sun we saw an entirely different relationship (in a book I totally loved, BTW) between employer and employee, but it shared with White Tiger the aspect of employer as seen from the eyes of an employee inside the house who sees the family and all its interactions intimately.
The Help, a surprise best seller, does the same to 1960’s era Mississippi. A recent graduate from Ole Miss (University of Mississippi) starts interviewing the maids from local households, any maid that will talk to her. At first, no one will talk with her, but after traumatizing racial clashes, one by one, they share their stories. Just interviewing the maids, just the maids sharing their stories, is enough to bring on serious consequences.
First, the book is riveting. I have a million things I really REALLY need to be doing, and I can’t stop reading. There is something about peeking into your neighbors house, seeing how they behave when they think no one is looking, that appeals to the voyeur in each of us.
Second, these women are taking serious risks. I am on the edge of my chair with each reading, hoping nothing bad happens to them.
Third, there is something that makes you squirm, it is the old “wee giftie” that shows us the worst in ourselves as others might see us; our own hypocrisies, our condescensions, our patronizing acts, how cruel our charitable acts can appear through the eyes of others, and how callous we are in the end towards those who take care of us every day.
It has rocketed onto the best seller list, now the #6 best selling book on Amazon.
If your book club is looking for a book to read that will get you talking and keep you talking for a long time, this is one of the best.
If you have hired help in the house, I double-dog-dare-you to read this book. (OOps, sometimes the little Alaska girl in me pops back out!) Fair warning, though, once you start, you won’t want to put it down.
Suq al Waqif Coffee Shops closed
You gotta read the small items in the newspapers – that’s where a lot of the real news is. Today, in the Gulf Times is this tiny little article about shops being closed in the Souq al Waqif for serving shisha to underage people. Who knew? There is a legal age for smoking shisha?
Coffee shops closed
A number of coffee shops at the Souq Waqif were closed by the Doha Municipality for not complying with the health regulations, according to a report in a local Arabic newspaper.
The report said closure notices were put up by the municipality inspectors on the doors of the non-complying coffee shops.
Among the recently detected violations was the offering of Shish to teens under 18, which the report said, was in breach of the contracts signed by the Old Souq department and tenants of the coffee shops.
However, coffee shop managers at the Souq pointed out that asking customers their age could cause anger, particularly with female customers, who just opt to move to another outlet.
Jaidah Flyover roadworks finish in five days
From today’s Gulf Times comes news that one of the worst current traffic snarls in town will be history in five days.
Do you believe it?
And now – how is the work on D-ring going? Any news on how soon it will be completed?
By Sarmad Qazi
The road works under the Jaidah flyover are expected to be completed in five days, an official said yesterday.
The busy junction leading to the Corniche and the densely-populated Musheireb area in one direction and to Ramada junction and the Salwa highway on the other was dug up towards the end of September for expansion work.
Read the whole article HERE
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